'The ratings are not through model,' Nuttycombe told Facing South. While some analysts plug data about a district's voters or election results into a program and share whatever the computer spits out, Nuttycombe and his team size up each of the country's 7,383 legislative seats and come up with betting odds for each race, Vegas-style. Nuttycombe takes a hands-on approach to his projections. It now gives odds for the outcome for every state legislative race in the country. He began sharing his projections publicly in 2020 through the website of CNalysis, the political forecasting outfit he runs. Now, Republicans, in many cases again benefiting from their design of new legislative maps put in place after the 2020 census, are in a position to expand their margins in the South.Ĭharles 'Chaz' Nuttycombe has been predicting state legislative races since 2017, when he started picking General Assembly winners in his native Virginia. By the end of the Obama presidency, Republicans had flipped 29 state chambers across the country - 14 of them in the South.

In 2010, backlash against President Obama - and a well-funded strategy by Republican operatives - fueled a shift of 700 state legislative seats from Democrats to Republicans nationally, with a disproportionate share in Southern states.Ĭrucially, the Republicans' seismic 2010 legislative victories put the GOP in charge of redistricting, enabling them to draw maps that would further cement control. Southern Democrats are keenly aware of how devastating midterms can be in state politics.

That will bolster the ability of Republicans to move an increasingly conservative agenda in Southern states - and will extend the time it takes for Democrats to claw back to competitiveness in Southern legislatures. But the GOP plans to leverage declining national support for Democrats - and state political maps that largely protect Republican candidates - to boost their advantage.Įlection analysts predict Democrats could lose more than 40 state house and senate seats in the South in 2022, unless the dynamics of this year's elections significantly change in the coming months. Republicans already hold majorities in 25 of the South's 26 legislative chambers the Virginia Senate, which won't have elections in 2022, is the lone Democratic holdout. At a time when key policy decisions are moving to the states - most recently abortion, in the wake of the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision - Republicans are poised to tighten their hold on state legislative chambers in the South. Less discussed is the impact the potential 2022 'red wave' will have on state politics, especially in legislative races. House and Senate in November's elections.

Disillusion with Democrats has led political prediction outfits like to project Republicans are favored to win control of the U.S. Midterm elections are never good for the party that holds power in the White House, and 2022 is expected to be no exception for Democrats in the South and nationally.įair or not, President Biden is being blamed for inflation, stubborn pandemic-related supply-chain problems, and other challenges that have pushed his approval numbers to record lows.

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